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Stocks are NOT On Sale Right Now

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Whenever there is a noteworthy stock market decline, a parade of headlines (like this) loudly proclaiming that stocks are on sale are never far behind. They equate investing to retail “door-buster” sales – “Buy now – our prices are so low that they are INSANE!”. But the reality is we really have no clue where stock prices are going to go from here. Even after the recent market declines of ~10%, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE, or Shiller PE ratio) still sits at a lofty 31.69. That is almost 2X the historical mean (16.83) and median (16.15)...

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